Eugene Climate Plan 2010 Mock-Up/Eugene Climate Plan Technical Carbon Budget

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This working page is part of the Eugene Climate Planning project, an independent pubic interest consulting project intended to provide background technical analysis in support of the official Eugene Climate and Energy Action Plan (CEAP) project. Comments are appreciated - please login and use the "discussion" tab.

This is part of an expanded technical version of a mock-up carbon budget constructed from broadly accepted mainstream numbers, using a minimum of assumptions. The carbon budget starts with the official City of Eugene greenhouse gas emissions inventory of 2007, and factors in official population projections, with levels simply adjusted to meet the State of Oregon adopted emissions reduction targets.

As well as providing a concrete reference projection of mainstream climate planning targets, this carbon budget may also help illuminate the linear implications of basic facts and choices already made and acknowledged by state and local elected officials.

Eugene Climate Planning > Eugene Climate Plan 2010 Mock-Up > Technical Carbon Budget - Sector 1 - Buildings and Energy - Sector 2 - Land Use and Mobility - Sector 3 - Consumption and Solid Waste - Sector 4 - Urban Forestry - Sector 5 - Food and Agriculture - Sector 6 - Community Engagement - Sector 7 - Climate Change Preparation - Sector 8 - Local Government Operations -

Contents

Summary Version of Eugene Projected Carbon Budget

Eugene GHG Emission Budget 1990 2005 2020 Relative to 1990 (10% reduction) 2050 Relative to 1990 (75% reduction)
Total carbon emissions (metric tons) 911,965 1,258,524 820,769 90 % 227,991 25 %
Population (official projections) 112,733 146,160 175,515 156 % 383,135 (?) 340 %
Per person carbon emissions (metric tons) 8.1 8.6 4.7 58 % 0.6 7 %
Passenger (vehicle, only) miles/day/person (LCOG simulated) (Savings 50/50 technology/VMT) 17.6 15.2 10.8 61 % 3.2 18 %
Electricity (kWh per person) 17,072 15,656 9,869 58 % 1,256 7 %
Natural gas (Therms per person) 440 564 254 58 % 32 7 %

source: Eugene Community Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory Report, July 2007, p3, 22, 2050 population: Population Projections for 2004 Wastewater Facilities Plan

Expanded Technical Version of Eugene Projected Carbon Budget

Carbon Budget with percentage changes relative to 1990, reference emissions levels

Eugene GHG Emission Budget 1990 2005 2020 Relative to 1990 (10% reduction) 2030 by interpolation Relative to 1990 (21.67% reduction) 2050 Relative to 1990 (75% reduction)
Total carbon emissions (metric tons) 911,965 1,258,524 820,769 90 % 623,176 68 % 227,991 25 %
Population (official projections) 112,733 146,160 175,515 156 % 244,722 217 % 383,135 (?) 340 %
Per person carbon emissions (metric tons) 8.1 8.6 4.7 58 % 3.3 41 % 0.6 7 %
Total passenger (vehicle, only) miles (LCOG simulated) (Savings 50/50 technology/VMT) 725,730,960 810,492,720 689,444,412 95 % 610,823,558 84 % 453,581,850 63 %
Passenger (vehicle, only) miles/day/person (LCOG simulated) (Savings 50/50 technology/VMT) 17.6 15.2 10.8 61 % 8.3 47 % 3.2 18 %
Total electricity (kWh) 1,924,633,992 2,288,285,248 1,732,170,593 90 % 1,315,166,561 68 % 481,158,498 25 %
Electricity (kWh per person) 17,072 15,656 9,869 58 % 6,998 41 % 1,256 7 %
Total natural gas (Therms) 49,600,000 82,402,000 44,640,000 90 % 33,893,333 68 % 12,400,000 25 %
Natural gas (Therms per person) 440 564 254 58 % 180 41 % 32 7 %

source: Eugene Community Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory Report, July 2007, p3, 22, 2050 population: Population Projections for 2004 Wastewater Facilities Plan

Carbon Budget with percentage changes relative to 2005, most current inventory emissions levels

Eugene GHG Emission Budget 1990 2005 2020 Relative to 2005 (10% below 1990) 2030 by interpolation Relative to 2005 (21.67% below 1990) 2050 Relative to 2005 (75% below 1990)
Total carbon emissions (metric tons) 911,965 1,258,524 820,769 65 % 623,176 50 % 227,991 18 %
Population (official projections) 112,733 146,160 175,515 120 % 244,722 167 % 383,135 (?) 262 %
Per person carbon emissions (metric tons) 8.1 8.6 4.7 54 % 3.3 39 % 0.6 7 %
Total passenger (vehicle, only) miles (LCOG simulated) (Savings 50/50 technology/VMT) 725,730,960 810,492,720 689,444,412 85 % 610,823,558 75 % 453,581,850 56 %
Passenger (vehicle, only) miles/day/person (LCOG simulated) (Savings 50/50 technology/VMT) 17.6 15.2 10.8 71 % 8.3 54 % 3.2 21 %
Total electricity (kWh) 1,924,633,992 2,288,285,248 1,732,170,593 76 % 1,315,166,561 57 % 481,158,498 21 %
Electricity (kWh per person) 17,072 15,656 9,869 63 % 6,998 57 % 1,256 8 %
Total natural gas (Therms) 49,600,000 82,402,000 44,640,000 54 % 33,893,333 41 % 12,400,000 15 %
Natural gas (Therms per person) 440 564 254 45 % 180 32 % 32 6 %

source: Eugene Community Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory Report, July 2007, p3, 22, 2050 population: Population Projections for 2004 Wastewater Facilities Plan

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